California Gov. Gavin Newsom and his fellow state Democrats are threatening a redistricting plan that would eliminate more than half of the current GOP-held congressional districts amid a nationwide battle over gerrymandering.
Republicans currently hold nine seats in California, compared to the Democrats' 43. Under Newsom's proposed plan, Democrats would pick up five more seats.
"We strongly believe that this map serves the best interest of California voters, while also attempting to push back against the corrupt scheme occurring in Texas and other Republican-majority states where Republicans - doing the bidding of their DC party bosses - are considering adopting a clearly racially gerrymandered, partisan map at the expense of their voters," the Democratic Congressional Campaign Commission (DCCC) said last week.
Here are the Republicans whose districts would likely become unwinnable under the plan.
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Rep. Doug LaMalfa's northern congressional district is currently mostly rural, leading to a +17 Republican voter registration advantage.
Under the proposed redistricting plan, however, that would swing to a +10 advantage for Democrats. This would be accomplished by reclassifying a vast section of the district's northernmost territory.
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Rep. Kevin Kiley's 3rd Congressional District currently has a +6 Republican advantage by voter registration, but that would flip to a +8 Democrat advantage under the new plan.
This is accomplished by stretching the district to include portions of the deep-blue suburbs around Sacramento.
Rep. David Valadao is one of the few Republicans in California who was able to win a district that already has a slight Democratic advantage.
Under the new plan, however, Democrats would tack a six-point advantage on top of the current voter registration match-up.
Rep. Ken Calvert's 41st Congressional District would face a massive swing toward Democrats, with the GOP losing its voter registration advantage and Democrats picking up a +20 advantage.
"64% of Californians oppose Gavin Newsom's power grab. It's clear there is bipartisan support for keeping the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission and not allowing politicians to draw their district maps behind closed doors to choose their voters," Calvert wrote of the plan on X.
Rep. Darrell Issa's district would pick up a section of Calvert's former district in Palm Springs, a deep blue voting area that promises to swing Issa's district to a +4 Democrat advantage.
Based on the 2024 presidential election, Issa's district went +15 in favor of Trump, but under the new boundaries it would have gon +3 in favor of former Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the Cook Political Report.
Of the five seats impacted, Valadao's and Issa's would be turned into lean-Democratic districts that may still be winnable by Republican candidates, but the others would be flipping firmly to the Democrats.
